Market Update!

Admittedly, equity markets around the world have not moved in the way we've predicted thus far.  Having said that, we still believe there will be yet another major pullback sometime during winter.  Our 'pullback' call may simply be too early.  However, market data simply does not point to a stronger and continuously increasing equity market.  The Fed is now stepping in to follow through on 'quantitative easing' through treasury purchases, but please ask yourself this question, "Why does the Fed need to step in with such a drastic measure?"  The answer is that they see trouble and believe its necessary to step in in such an extreme way.  Will it work?  Who knows? But gridlock in the legislative branch has certainly helped the most recent 300 point jump on the Dow.  We again, admittedly, did not see shift in political changes occurring the way they did.  Only time will tell how the market moves from here on out, but Its increasingly difficult to see equity markets moving significantly higher from these levels unless employment starts coming down through sustainable jobs offered by the private sector and inflation remains at bay.  That said, we still see great opportunities in the US markets (even at current levels) and would pleased to spell out in detail where we see them.  Please join or follow us at NP Fisher to find out where those opportunities are and why they are there.

October!

As we enter October We'd like to examine what is taking place in the marketplace.  Since our last post, the Dow has fallen and risen and fallen and risen again.  It now stands at about 10,800.  This seems to be a reasonable level for the summer-to-fall of next year.  Having said that, many observers do claim that the major indices tend to lead by one year out.  But what strikes us most is that it has risen to this level on light volume which suggests that institutional investors, pension funds and other major investors remain seated on the sidelines.  As well, recent reports of a 4 week moving average on unemployment have risen to 465,000 or so.  What's interesting here is that in order for the economy to (really) start growing again, we need to be adding that many jobs instead of filers asking for benefits......Please think about that for a moment and let it sink in.......  Now, this has been going on for about a year or so and it is unlikely to suddenly begin a major sharp reversal.

On top of that, the Fed continues to announce (as of Sept. 20th) that the housing market remains weak as the housing credit expires, employers are still reluctant to add staff as they NEED to cut costs, there is still a slowdown in business investment and that there have only been modest gains in consumer spending.

There are also renewed fears surrounding the (PIIGS--Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain).  Will there be another German and French bailout??  Will the IMF or Worldbank come to the rescue with higher interest rates??  Will there be more austerity measures to be carried out followed by riots??  Ireland just announced that it needs to add billions more to its own banks.  Spain's public debt has just been downgraded again.  Remember that Spain carries an official unemployment rate of around 20%.  Unofficially, near 30%.

Over here in Japan, the yen is so strong that the government has 'likely' intervened twice just recently in order to stall the yen from rising so fast that no one wants to buy Japanese products as they become too expensive leading to deflationary pressures.

Now to Gold, it is still seen as a safe have and often moves in the opposite direction from risky assets, such as equities.  It has been reaching new highs as of late.  If buyers of gold thought that equities would be a better investment than they would be selling gold, not buying it.  This is yet another indicator that many market players expect US equities to languish or fall going forward.

But let's take a look at the reasons for the market to run higher shall we??

It does seem that world leaders have been able to come together relatively quickly and devise a plan that will help out as we scuffle along, or near, the bottom of this recession.  Remember, our shopping behavior makes up roughly 70% of the G-7 economic value while government spending and trade make up the rest.  The actions that governments the world over have taken have been calculated to the best degree they could have been.  The government has done, and will continue to do the best it can with what it has to prevent an all-out depression.  Maybe it is this idea that has pushed the market up to its recent levels....who knows??

But we still believe markets will likely fall from these levels and yet again, this will present some with the 'right time to buy' into US equities.  Join us at NPFisher to find out why we think the US is still the best place to be invested in equities--even foreign equities!!

NP at NPFisher!

Info to consider!

In early 2008, the US and other global stock (equity) markets were literally 'freaking out' over corporate prospects for the future. It appeared as if the 'sub-prime mortgage crisis' had created a huge sink hole right in the middle of the US taking many companies (Lehman & Bear Sterns) and other countries and their banks along with it as the monstrous hole pulled a significant amount of the global economic activity along with it into blackness.

It appears difficult for many people to remember that not only the US government, but also most other capitalist governments around the globe began taking action to 'step in' and support the economy. Like it or not, this is what governments do in a time of financial crisis.

In the US, an $8,000 housing credit became available for new home buyers, the 'cash for caulkers' bill was passed, unemployment benefits were extended beyond 'regular' time periods and specific tax credits were provided.

Over here in Japan, cash benefits were handed out, government subsidies were provided to buyers of eco-friendly cars and deep discounts were provided to those who wished to travel somewhere domestically on Sunday's.

There are many individuals and economists who criticize the government for taking the steps it has, such as those above, as they theorize that the government should let many 'troubled' companies and banks fail which would allow 'the system' to be cleaned out. And technically speaking, they are correct. However, this theory doesn't account for the softer qualitative cultural side of society. The problem with this 'theory' is that as financially troubled companies fail and lay off their staff, society collapses and the unemployment rate SOARS. Not just a little, but 'a------lot'. Had governments around the globe not stepped in and offered support to the economy through lower interest rates and the nationalization of some firms, ie. GM- AIG- Citi, we would likely be staring 20%-40% 'official' unemployment if not more in the face.

At this time, its also important to remember that during the great depression, the US was a country with a society which 'generally' helped its neighbor. In today's society, people generally don't trust someone they don't know and we all seem to have that 'look over our shoulder' mentality as we walk down the main strip of any major city, especially in the evening-night. (You know what I'm talking about don't you)

Today's society would tear it self apart socially if unemployment were allowed to get 'officially' that high. Crime would be rampant as ordinarily 'good citizens' turned into thieves. It would literally be a 'run for the hills and save yourself' environment.

So rather than let that happen, The US government (and others) decided to try and inflate their way out of this downturn through lower interest rates and stimulus spending. This of course does not cure the illness, but it does wrap it, give it medicine and allow it time to heal. Sure, it may take a little time for the economy to get back in the full swing of things, but its likely a lot better than the 'shock' therapy suggested by those with healthy bank accounts who would likely be able to weather such a such a severe downturn better than the rest of us 'regular folk'.

At this point in time, the stimulus package and its effects are beginning to wear off. GDP is in decline and the public sector is not adding jobs at a pace quick enough to create a 'real and sustained' recovery. The US and other global stock (equity) markets have clearly responded favorably to recent government interventions. However, from now on, the dosage of medicine administered by the governments of major economies will decrease and the private sector (which makes up roughly 2/3 of major economies) will need to begin functioning increasingly on its own. And the big question is, will we be able to handle it??

We at NP Fisher believe it'll be rough going from here on out and that now is 'NOT', in fact, the time to be investing in most stock (equity) markets either in the US or around the world. We are currently advising most of our clients not to invest in stocks (equities), but rather to save and build up cash positions so that when the next opportunity does arise, our clients will be perfectly positioned to buy specific stocks (equities) at 'discount' prices.

Why not join us at NP Fisher to find out how we can help you position yourself to be 'invested at the right time and in the right place'.

NP at npfisher.com

Join us!

Not only will US stock markets fall from their current levels from now until 2011, but other major stock markets will fall in step with the American equity markets and we'll enter into a double dip recession 'phase' which will create incredible opportunities for some.....would you not like to be one of those 'some'?

Join us at NPFisher, and we'll help you understand what's 'likely' to come next in global equity markets. We'll also help you position yourself properly so that you'll benefit financially from upward economic movements when they eventually do occur.

NP at npfisher.com

blog

In early 2008, the US and other global stock (equity) markets were literally 'freaking out' over corporate prospects for the future. It appeared as if the 'sub-prime mortgage crisis' had created a huge sink hole right in the middle of the US taking many companies (Lehman & Bear Sterns) and other countries and their banks along with it as the monstrous hole pulled a significant amount of the global economic activity along with it into blackness.

It appears difficult for many people to remember that not only the US government, but also most other capitalist governments around the globe began taking action to 'step in' and support the economy. Like it or not, this is what governments do in a time of financial crisis.

In the US, an $8,000 housing credit became available for new home buyers, the 'cash for caulkers' bill was passed, unemployment benefits were extended beyond 'regular' time periods and specific tax credits were provided.

Over here in Japan, cash benefits were handed out, government subsidies were provided to buyers of eco-friendly cars and deep discounts were provided to those who wished to travel somewhere domestically on Sunday's.

There are many individuals and economists who criticize the government for taking the steps it has, such as those above, as they theorize that the government should let many 'troubled' companies and banks fail which would allow 'the system' to be cleaned out. And technically speaking, they are correct. However, this theory doesn't account for the softer qualitative cultural side of society. The problem with this 'theory' is that as financially troubled companies fail and lay off their staff, society collapses and the unemployment rate SOARS. Not just a little, but 'a------lot'. Had governments around the globe not stepped in and offered support to the economy through lower interest rates and the nationalization of some firms, ie. GM- AIG- Citi, we would likely be staring 20%-40% 'official' unemployment if not more in the face.

At this time, its also important to remember that during the great depression, the US was a country with a society which 'generally' helped its neighbor. In today's society, people generally don't trust someone they don't know and we all seem to have that 'look over our shoulder' mentality as we walk down the main strip of any major city, especially in the evening-night. (You know what I'm talking about don't you)

Today's society would tear it self apart socially if unemployment were allowed to get 'officially' that high. Crime would be rampant as ordinarily 'good citizens' turned into thieves. It would literally be a 'run for the hills and save yourself' environment.

So rather than let that happen, The US government (and others) decided to try and inflate their way out of this downturn through lower interest rates and stimulus spending. This of course does not cure the illness, but it does wrap it, give it medicine and allow it time to heal. Sure, it may take a little time for the economy to get back in the full swing of things, but its likely a lot better than the 'shock' therapy suggested by those with healthy bank accounts who would likely be able to weather such a such a severe downturn better than the rest of us 'regular folk'.

At this point in time, the stimulus package and its effects are beginning to wear off. GDP is in decline and the public sector is not adding jobs at a pace quick enough to create a 'real and sustained' recovery. The US and other global stock (equity) markets have clearly responded favorably to recent government interventions. However, from now on, the dosage of medicine administered by the governments of major economies will decrease and the public sector (which makes up roughly 2/3 of major economies) will need to begin functioning increasingly on its own. And the big question is, will we be able to handle it??

We at NP Fisher believe it'll be rough going from here on out and that now is 'NOT', in fact, the time to be investing in most stock (equity) markets either in the US or around the world. We are currently advising most of our clients not to invest in stocks (equities), but rather to save and build up cash positions so that when the next opportunity does arise, our clients will be perfectly positioned to buy specific stocks (equities) at 'discount' prices.

Why not join us at NP Fisher to find out how we can help you position yourself to be 'invested at the right time and in the right place'.

NP at npfisher.com

blog

Not only will US stock markets fall from their current levels from now until 2011, but other major stock markets will fall in step with the American equity markets and we'll enter into a double dip recession 'phase' which will create incredible opportunities for some.....would you not like to be one of those 'some'?

Join us at NPFisher, and we'll help you understand what's 'likely' to come next in global equity markets. We'll also help you position yourself properly so that you'll benefit financially from upward economic movements when they eventually do occur.

NP at npfisher.com

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In early 2008, the US and other global stock (equity) markets were literally 'freaking out' over corporate prospects for the future. It appeared as if the 'sub-prime mortgage crisis' had created a huge sink hole right in the middle of the US taking many companies (Lehman & Bear Sterns) and other countries and their banks along with it as the monstrous hole pulled a significant amount of the global economic activity along with it into blackness.

It appears difficult for many people to remember that not only the US government, but also most other capitalist governments around the globe began taking action to 'step in' and support the economy. Like it or not, this is what governments do in a time of financial crisis.

In the US, an $8,000 housing credit became available for new home buyers, the 'cash for caulkers' bill was passed, unemployment benefits were extended beyond 'regular' time periods and specific tax credits were provided.

Over here in Japan, cash benefits were handed out, government subsidies were provided to buyers of eco-friendly cars and deep discounts were provided to those who wished to travel somewhere domestically on Sunday's.

There are many individuals and economists who criticize the government for taking the steps it has, such as those above, as they theorize that the government should let many 'troubled' companies and banks fail which would allow 'the system' to be cleaned out. And technically speaking, they are correct. However, this theory doesn't account for the softer qualitative cultural side of society. The problem with this 'theory' is that as financially troubled companies fail and lay off their staff, society collapses and the unemployment rate SOARS. Not just a little, but 'a------lot'. Had governments around the globe not stepped in and offered support to the economy through lower interest rates and the nationalization of some firms, ie. GM- AIG- Citi, we would likely be staring 20%-40% 'official' unemployment if not more in the face.

At this time, its also important to remember that during the great depression, the US was a country with a society which 'generally' helped its neighbor. In today's society, people generally don't trust someone they don't know and we all seem to have that 'look over our shoulder' mentality as we walk down the main strip of any major city, especially in the evening-night. (You know what I'm talking about don't you)

Today's society would tear it self apart socially if unemployment were allowed to get 'officially' that high. Crime would be rampant as ordinarily 'good citizens' turned into thieves. It would literally be a 'run for the hills and save yourself' environment.

So rather than let that happen, The US government (and others) decided to try and inflate their way out of this downturn through lower interest rates and stimulus spending. This of course does not cure the illness, but it does wrap it, give it medicine and allow it time to heal. Sure, it may take a little time for the economy to get back in the full swing of things, but its likely a lot better than the 'shock' therapy suggested by those with healthy bank accounts who would likely be able to weather such a such a severe downturn better than the rest of us 'regular folk'.

At this point in time, the stimulus package and its effects are beginning to wear off. GDP is in decline and the public sector is not adding jobs at a pace quick enough to create a 'real and sustained' recovery. The US and other global stock (equity) markets have clearly responded favorably to recent government interventions. However, from now on, the dosage of medicine administered by the governments of major economies will decrease and the public sector (which makes up roughly 2/3 of major economies) will need to begin functioning increasingly on its own. And the big question is, will we be able to handle it??

We at NP Fisher believe it'll be rough going from here on out and that now is 'NOT', in fact, the time to be investing in most stock (equity) markets either in the US or around the world. We are currently advising most of our clients not to invest in stocks (equities), but rather to save and build up cash positions so that when the next opportunity does arise, our clients will be perfectly positioned to buy specific stocks (equities) at 'discount' prices.

Why not join us at NP Fisher to find out how we can help you position yourself to be 'invested at the right time and in the right place'.

NP at npfisher.com

Not only will US stock markets fall from their current levels from now until 2011, but other major stock markets will fall in step with the American equity markets and we'll enter into a double dip recession 'phase' which will create incredible opportunities for some.....would you not like to be one of those 'some'?

Join us at NPFisher, and we'll help you understand what's 'likely' to come next in global equity markets. We'll also help you position yourself properly so that you'll benefit financially from upward economic movements when they eventually do occur.

NP at npfisher.com